MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0033
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
531 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WESTERN MD PANHANDLE...WESTERN VA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 211030Z - 211630Z
 
SUMMARY...UPSTREAM MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN WV THIS MORNING. THE REGION CONTINUES TO FEATURE LOW FFG
VALUES SUGGESTING THE AREA SHOULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCAL FLASH
FLOOD ISSUES. HOURLY RATES IN RECENT MESONET DATA HAVE SUPPORTED
0.50 INCH AMOUNTS. 

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW...A BROAD SHIELD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
TRANSLATED FROM EASTERN MO TOWARD SOUTHERN OH OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY WAS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. HOWEVER...LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY REMAINS WHICH HAS LED TO A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AND A RESULTANT WARMING TREND IN CLOUD
TOPS. IN SPITE OF THESE ISSUES...GENERAL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...A LONG LOOP OF THE
BLENDED-TPW DATA INDICATED THE TROPOSPHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENING
DOWNSTREAM. THE PWAT AT LOUISVILLE KY JUMPED FROM 0.63 INCHES TO
1.14 INCHES DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS. ALL OF THIS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE LOWER OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

RECENT MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HOURLY RATES IN
THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS NOTED IN
SOUTHWESTERN OH. THESE COULD COME UP A BIT THIS MORNING AS LOCAL
UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES MAY AUGMENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE BUT FFG VALUES ARE QUITE
LOW OVER THE MPD AREA. WHILE A LARGE-SCALE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
ISSUES...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE STEEPER TERRAIN IN EASTERN WV/FAR
WESTERN VA. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   39747896 39697823 39317796 38747810 38207848 
            37857889 37587933 37358037 37318100 37628150 
            37988156 38788125 39228064 39337986