MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0035
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
638 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...LA...MS...AL...AR...TN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 232345Z - 240445Z
 
SUMMARY...ISOLATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH CELL MERGERS AND
SHORT TERM TRAINING

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER WITH
HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS OF 1 TO 2 MB PER HOUR AS OF 23Z.  A WELL
DEVELOPED DRY SLOT WAS INDICATED AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW
OVER ERN AR/LA AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS/INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WAS AIDING STG ASCENT NEAR
AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MS/EASTERN AR THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
TN EARLY THIS EVENING.  WHILE RECENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAGER
CAPE...THE STG DYNAMIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE AND EXPECT RAINFALL
RATES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS EVENING WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO AN INCH OR SO AN HOUR IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
BANDS...WITH THESE RATES LIKELY ALLOWING RAINFALL TOTALS TO
APPROACH OR LOCALLY EXCEED EXISTING 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.  
FARTHER SOUTH...WARM SECTOR CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO SEVERAL
LEWP STRUCTURES ACRS SRN MS/LA WITHIN STRONG MSTR FLUX GRADIENT
AND OVER 50 KT 85H INFLOW..ALL COINCIDENT WITH VERY DIFFLUENT UPR
JET.  EXPECT THIS AREA TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO ACCELERATE MORE
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 
RAINFALL RATES HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE ELEMENTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS

SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36478804 35888753 34608718 33788658 32718631 
            32248670 32018691 31668753 30638831 29608948 
            30269025 31178962 31598958 32488926 33318985 
            34099071 34949090 35978978 36318924