MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0047
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1023 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
 
VALID 070315Z - 071000Z
 
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG WITH A COMPACT LOW CENTER LIFTING NORTH JUST OFF THE COAST
OF WESTERN OR THIS EVENING WHICH IS ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL
RANGES OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA THROUGH 10Z. THE PWATS AHEAD OF
THE THIS COLD FRONT ARE ON THE ORDER OF 0.7 TO 0.8 INCHES...WHICH
IS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...HOWEVER GIVEN A
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...THE 850/700MB
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

EXPECTING AN AXIS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN A
COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE COLUMN WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY 700/500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8 DEGREES C/KM AND HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO
250 TO 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL RANGES AND
OFFSHORE.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
RATES TO APPROACH AND LOCALLY EXCEED A 0.50"/HR OVER THE COASTAL
RANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH AS THE FRONT ADVANCES DOWN
THE COAST. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINS MAY POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF CONCERNS
AND ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF BURN SCAR AREAS WHERE MUDSLIDE AND
DEBRIS FLOW POTENTIAL WILL EXIST.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   41182381 41072361 40302350 39562317 38552236 
            37822171 37242130 35642051 35352094 36262195 
            37222239 38812358 39332401 40292424 40822419