MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0049
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST MON MAR 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TX & SOUTH-CENTRAL OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 071920Z - 080120Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TX AND SOUTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ENHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75" AND LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4" POSSIBLE,
FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT UPTICK TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS SUNSHINE HELPS WARM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX, FORMING A BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FAR WESTERN TX.  THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IS
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TX AT THIS TIME, WITH CIN SLOWLY
ERODING PER SPC MESOANALYSES.  MLCAPES IN THE REGION ARE ~500 J/KG
PER SPC MESOANALYSES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP TO 1.38"
NEAR GARLAND TX PER GPS VALUES.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS BROADLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 45 KTS.  THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN TX LOOKS
RATHER CAPPED, BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONGER INVERSIONS
IN THAT AREA AND IMPLIED BY THE PRESENCE OF 9C AIR AT 700 HPA.

LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
AS MLCAPES RISE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS CIN ERODES, WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY
20Z.  RAP FORECASTS INDICATE PWS INCREASE ABOVE 1.5" THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INCREASE HOURLY RAIN RATES.  

THE WETTER GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION WELL, WHICH INCLUDES OCCASIONAL HRRR RUNS, THE 12Z
SPCWRF, AND THE 12Z WRF4NSSL.  THE 12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB WERE
COMPLETELY MISSING THE BOAT AND NOT CONSIDERED USEFUL.  THE
CONVECTION SHOULD ATTEMPT TO BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE DUE TO
THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY FORECAST.  HOWEVER,
THE BACKING STEERING FLOW SHOULD BLOCK ANY NATURAL FORWARD
CONVECTIVE PROPAGATION PARALLEL TO 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS LINES TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST, WHICH COULD SET UP A TRAINING ENVIRONMENT AND
STRENGTHEN THE COLD POOL.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING 1.75".  FLASH FLOODING
IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35879615 35369512 33399618 31679747 30779877 
            30969933 31929931 34629760