MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0050...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
820 PM EST MON MAR 07 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 080120Z - 080600Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS WITH RISK OF BACKBUILDING AND
TRAINING CELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
TENDING TO BACKBUILD AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA ACROSS PORTIONS
OFF NORTHERN TX AND ESPECIALLY COUNTIES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO AREA.

A STRONGLY WEDGED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE EXISTS IN IR/WV
IMAGERY...INDICATIVE OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT/DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT WHICH APPEARS TO BE GETTING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
NM/SOUTHWEST TX AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. WHILE PWATS
HAD BEEN BEEN RELATIVELY MODEST...THEY WILL BE INCREASING OVER
NIGHT AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING CROSSING NORTHERN MEXICO AND
EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

PWATS HAVE RISEN LOCALLY TO 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...AND A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET REACHING 40
TO 50 KTS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA BY 06Z.

THE INCREASINGLY DEEP LAYER ASCENT OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH A MODEST LEVEL OF INSTABILITY FOCUSING INTO AND
OVER A SMALLER SCALE COLD POOL. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS
COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
INTERCEPTING THE INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL JET...AND WITH SUCH
STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING...INCREASED BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY. THIS SCENARIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS PER
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER CONVECTIVE EXPANSION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...AND ALSO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN OK.

FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY GIVEN THE SET-UP AND RAINFALL RATES OF
1.5 INCHES/HR WITH STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE HEAVIEST
TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS IN THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA WHERE SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLASH FLOODING WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35529641 35179579 34119617 32599717 31759822 
            31679875 32189890 33099822 34199762 35049697