MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0054
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EXTREME EASTERN TX...NORTHERN AND WESTERN
LA...SOUTHERN AR... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090052Z - 090452Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED TRAINING OF CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK THIS EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO REFIRE
WITHIN A SLOW MOVING WARM CONVEYOR BELT...ALONG AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM
PW VALUES AND ANOMALOUS LOW-MID LAYER MOISTURE FLUX. 

THE LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV COMPOSITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE AND LIFTING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WILL BOOST THE SOUTHERLY INFLOW AT LOW LEVELS (TO 50-60 KTS
AT 850 MB)...WHILE ALSO ENHANCE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WHICH IS ALREADY THE BENEFICIARY OF
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND LOW-MID LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AS A RESULT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...PER THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS MIXED-LAYER CAPE TRENDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST
3 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS PER THE CURRENT
ANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2 AND 3+ INCHES PER
HOUR. IN TERMS OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE...THE RECENT TRENDS WITH
BOTH THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THESE UPPER
BOUND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

HURLEY

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34769182 34429096 33659088 32049147 30329260 
            29939356 30739399 32489391 33899309