MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0061
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EST WED MAR 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR...NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN TN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 091923Z - 100123Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE...

DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN AR AND FAR WESTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ADVECTING IN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TOWARDS THIS
BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER GPS AROUND 1.4" ACROSS
NORTHEAST AR AND 1.5" ACROSS NORTHWEST MS. THESE VALUES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN AR...AND WITH THE
SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION...THE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST MS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN TN AS WELL. FOR THE MOST PART
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IS KEEPING RATES AT OR BELOW 1" AN HOUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING IS
RESULTING IN HIGHER TOTALS. THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY TOO FAR
NORTHWEST WITH THE HEAVY AXIS...WITHE THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL
TOTALS LIKELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
CURRENT CONVECTIVE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1-3"...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 4" POSSIBLE.


CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...PAH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   37108880 37098844 36888811 36618806 36038855 
            35718888 34169017 32929062 32809143 33279230 
            35629101 36658965