MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0063
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
816 PM EST WED MAR 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...W KENTUCKY...S ILLINOIS...SW INDIANA...NW
MISSISSIPPI...E ARKANSAS...SE MISSOURI...N LOUISIANA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 100115Z - 100715Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED FOCUSED WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUING ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE AT THE APEX OF
THE SBCAPES ACROSS N LA INTO FAR W MS ATTM.  VERY STRONG 20-25 KT
SSELY SURFACE FLOW PROVIDES EXCELLENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FLUX INTO THE LINE OF CONVECTION BEFORE VERY DEEP NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW LEADS TO FURTHER TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND
CELL MOTIONS INTO A TRAINING PROFILE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE DEEP WARM CONVEYOR BELT.  RAP ANALYSIS AND
SOUNDINGS (KJAN 00Z) SUPPORT A VERY DEEP SATURATED PRE-CONVECTIVE
LINE ENVIRONMENT ADVECTED INTO THE CELLS NEAR FULL SATURATION TO
600MB...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALOFT TO MAINTAIN FURTHER
CONVECTIVE GROWTH...SUPPORTING A VERY DEEP AND EFFICIENT PROFILE
FOR RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
1-1.5"/HR RATES AS INSTABILITY LESSENS FURTH NORTH INTO THE
CONVEYOR NEAR S IL/SW IN/W KY.  

WV LOOP TRENDS ALSO INDICATE S/W RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND
SUPPRESS THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE.  THIS ALONG WITH
SLIGHT EASTWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS WITH STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS SUPPORTED AN EVER SO SLIGHT EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE
CONVEYOR INTO W TN/W KY TOWARD SW IN.  FURTHER SOUTH AS HEIGHT
FALLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BEGIN TO BACK
ACROSS LA ORIENTING MORE E-W AND SHOULD AID FURTHER WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MODERATE SHIELD PRECIPITATION TO
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND A BIT WEST ACROSS S AND CENTRAL AR...COMPOUNDING
ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS THERE.   


GALLINA 

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38408767 38038636 36618774 35158899 32729072 
            32929285 34059259 35939110 37318976 38058874