MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0065
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 PM EST WED MAR 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SW OREGON...NW CALIFORNIA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
 
VALID 100346Z - 101246Z
 
SUMMARY...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO LEAD TO HVY RAINFALL
WITH UP TO .5"/HR RATES FOR A FEW HOURS AS BEST FORCING STARTS TO
WANE.

DISCUSSION...WELL DEVELOPED OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED IN SATL SUITE WITH WELL DEFINED FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IN RECENT 89GHZ MOSAIC AND SWIR LOOP. CYCLONE TRACK NOW GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO COLD FRONT ORIENTATION TO SUPPORT A MODERATE TIME
WINDOW FOR ONSHORE FLOW INTO SW OREGON SLIPPING SLOWLY INTO NW
CALIFORNIA.  WV LOOP SHOWS MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/WEDGE
FOCUSING NEAR THE DISCUSSED AREA ALLOWING FOR SOME VERTICAL GROWTH
OF SHOWERS NEARING THE SW OR COASTLINE ATTM IN THE WANING VISBLE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS SEEN AS TRANSVERSE BANDS IN WV/IR.  THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH BEST UNIDIRECTIONAL 850-7H SHORE FLOW FROM 60 TO
75KTS WITH MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY GIVEN TPWS OF UP TO
1.2"...SUPPORTIVE OF HOURLY RATES AOA .5"/HR.  TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT A 5-6HR WINDOWN OF .25-.5"/HR LEADING
TO POTENTIAL OF 2-3" TOTALS...PARTICUARLY WITHIN FAVORED SW FACING
OROGRAPHY.  

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST LEADING TO FURTHER SEPARATION OF THE
ONSHORE MOISTURE CHANNEL AND REDUCING STRENGTH OF FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER 09Z AS THE MOISTURE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. 
STILL THE MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL REMAIN ALIGNED WITH ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN THE SPLIT/DIFFLENCE OF THE 150 KT JET AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN ALIGNED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE/MOISTURE FEED AND
MODERATE 40-50KT ONSHORE FLOW...SIMILAR RATES OF .25-.5"/HR SHOULD
PERSIST FOR CONTINUED HVY RAINFALL INTO MENDOCINO AND N SONOMA
COUNTIES. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...

LAT...LON   43582422 43332318 42272223 41442163 40692178 
            40132225 39572233 38932242 38482265 38412312 
            38992372 39582377 40162418 40422434 41052408 
            41942432 42972451