MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0072
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
804 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN LA...MS...NORTHERN AL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110103Z - 110400Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE
FROM THE LA COAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS
INTO NORTHERN AL.

DISCUSSION...WHILE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR AFFORDED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING
ENCOURAGES THE EASTERN PROPAGATION OF THE LEADING CONVECTION
FALLING ACROSS TN AND NORTHERN AL...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FROM THE LA COAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MS AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE 23Z RAP
SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINTAINING PWS OF 1.75 INCHES ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE UPPER TX COAST.  BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF A DEEP...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ALOFT MAY DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THROUGH 04Z.
 THESE AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34738602 33158718 31508870 29099005 29149115 
            30329152 32019084 34138861