MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0084
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...W KENTUCKY...W TENNESSEE...NW MISSISSIPPI...EXT E
ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
 
VALID 130223Z - 130623Z
 
SUMMARY...LIMITED SHORT-TERM WINDOW FOR REMAINING CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE HIGH RATES FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

DISCUSSION...INNER CORE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS BEING ENHANCED
IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO SOME INCREASED DPVA AND LEFT EXIT ASCENT
DYNAMICS FROM APPROACH OF NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE EXITING
NM...THIS FORCING/SURGE IS DENOTED WELL IN GOES-EAST WV LOOP AS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING.  THIS ASCENT WILL ALSO BE SHORT-TERM AS THE
UNDER-CUTTING JET IS AFFECTIVLY SHEARING THE REMNANTS OF THE INNER
CORE AS IT ALSO LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MEAN RIDGE.  STILL SUFFICIENT
ASCENT...VERY WEAK REMAINING INSTABILITY (MUCAPES TO 250 J/KG)
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE RATES UP TO 1.25-1.5"/HR OVER SATURATED
GROUNDS TO MAINTAIN FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS E AR/NW MS AND W TN
FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.  

FURTHER NORTH...DEEPER CONVECTION PER KPAH RADAR ALONG THE
INTERFACE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW
INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TO MAINTAIN DEEPER CORES ARE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE BETTER
INFLOW...FROM WEAKLEY COUNTY INTO MARSHALL COUNTY. RATES UP TO
2.0"/HR HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THIS CORE BUT WITH FURTHER SHIFTING
EAST OF THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FURTHER FROM UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL...GREATEST FF THREAT REMAINS WEST OF THE LAND BETWEEN THE
LAKES WHERE ANTICEDENT CONDTIONS AND 1 HR FFG VALUES ARE BELOW THE
EXPECTED RAIN RATES (1.5"/HR). 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37398723 36558756 35258909 34798946 34248994 
            34429097 36009092 36618970 37308827