MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0087
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
947 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E ARKANSAS...SW TENNESSEE...NW MISSISSIPPI...NE
LOUISIANA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140147Z - 140647Z
 
SUMMARY...SEVERE CONVECTION WITH RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR TO TRACK
ACROSS AREAS WITH LOWER THRESHOLDS DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WITH ISOLATED MERGERS AND REPEATING TRACKS POSE POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

DISCUSSION...DEEP TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKING INTO
W AR PROVIDING COOLING ALOFT FOR ENHANCED INSTABILITIES WITH
SBCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG AS WELL AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING SEVERE WEATHER... PLEASE REFER TO TORNADO WATCH
43..MCD 206 FROM SPC AND LOCAL WARNINGS FROM LITTLE ROCK/MEMPHIS
NWS OFFICE FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 

CURRENTLY MULTIPLE LINES OF DEEPER CONVECTION ARE SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS AR...THOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING NE
ALLOWING FOR SOME ACCIDENTAL TRAINING FROM DEVELOPING FLANKING
LINE CONVECTION AS WELL AS UPSTREAM LINES LIKELY TO CROSS TRACKS
FOR REPEAT HEAVY RAIN BURSTS.  ADDITIONALLY THE LEADING LINE BEST
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH EAST CONTINUES TO EXPAND/COOL WITH INDIVIDUAL
CELLS LOOKING TO MERGE ACROSS E AR...AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO W
MS/SW TN WHERE ANTECEDENT FLOODING CONDITIONS REMAIN...DUE TO
ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...REMAINING MOISTURE
ACROSS E TX/LA/AR HAS BEEN ABLE TO COMPILE NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH TPWS UP TO 1.25". THOUGH HAIL WILL DOMINATE DOWNDRAFTS
DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS...IT WILL MELT WITH THE RAINFALLS
LEADING TO QUICK BURSTS OF RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE  1-2" RANGE. 
THOUGH THIS IS BELOW FFG VALUES THE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE REBOUNDED
A BIT QUICK GIVEN THE GROUND CONDITIONS...AND FLASH FLOODING RISES
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CHOKE POINTS JUST ABOVE THE
FLOODED MAIN STEMS WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   35989050 35678838 34078948 33598978 32889040 
            32469113 32579210 33139212 34129191 35909217