MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0099
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
634 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX INTO SERN MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 302233Z - 310433Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAIN WITH 3 HR RATES OF 3-4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS PAST 00Z AS AN AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COVERAGE EXPANDS...POSSIBLY SETTING UP FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE REGION. FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY GIVEN
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR REPEATING OVER THE
SAME AREAS.

DISCUSSION...22Z OBSERVATIONS PLACED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO CNTRL ARKANSAS...JUST NORTH OF LIT...AND
WWD TO THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST SOUTH OF FSM.
OVERRUNNING OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS LED TO LARGELY STRATIFORM
RAINFALL TO ITS NORTH WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WHILE THE MODE TO
THE S AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MORE DISCRETE. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR HAVE BEEN COMMON WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTION AND
WHERE REPEATING CELLS FROM SW TO NE HAVE SET UP. THE AREA FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO BE WITHIN A FAVORED POSITION
WITH RESPECT TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 130-150 KT SUBTROPICAL JET CORE EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA. 

OBSERVED 850-700 MB FLOW OF 50-60 KTS...AS SEEN IN SHV AND LZK VAD
WIND PLOTS...WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z WITH A SSE-NNE CONFLUENCE AXIS
LIKELY SETTING UP OVER W-CNTRL ARKANSAS AS AN 850 MB LOW IN ERN
NEBRASKA MOVES EWD. RADAR HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS WHICH MAY
DEVELOP ANOTHER COLD POOL ORIENTED SW TO NE INTO SRN ARKANSAS AND
NERN TEXAS. THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POTENTIAL COLD POOL AND
ORIENTATION OF CELL MOTIONS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AN AXIS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SW TO NE CENTERED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN ARKANSAS
THROUGH 04Z. 6 HR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...PAH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37088983 36998957 36758947 36318956 34829048 
            33639120 33089189 32859238 32769285 32689396 
            32339522 32359571 32679577 33189537 33649452 
            34289376 35219281 36079168 36869057