MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0101
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
549 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...SOUTHEAST 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 310948Z - 311400Z
 
SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO
OVERALL BE ON A DECLINING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING
HOURS....BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER A SMALLER AREA OF MS. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS AR HAS ALLOWED THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OFF TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE AREA IS
ALSO OUTRUNNING ANY INSTABILITY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO AL AND
CENTRAL TN...WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ALSO BECOMING A LITTLE LESS
DEFINED AS THE 850MB FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. ALSO THE WHOLE
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE PREFERRED UPPER DIFFLUENT
AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ALL THESE
FAVORS SUGGEST CONTINUED GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AS DESCRIBED
BELOW...A MORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES.

STILL DO HAVE A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN THOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACROSS WESTERN TN THE PRECIPITATION
IS MORE OF A STRATIFORM NATURE...BUT STILL SEEING RATES OVER A
HALF INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES. AND TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-4"
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. THINK THE THREAT WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND MUCH FURTHER EAST
IN TN GIVEN THE CONTINUED DECREASING INTENSITY SHOWN BY RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR.

STILL GETTING SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MS WHERE MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUES TO BE LESS
INTERRUPTED AND INSTABILITY IS A TAD HIGHER. THE CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY PROGRESSIVE HELPING LIMIT AMOUNTS AND
MINIMIZE THE FLOOD RISK. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NOSE OF THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN MS HAS
BEGUN TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRAINING
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS. THUS WHILE ON AVERAGE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTEHRN MS SHOULD BE 1-2"...THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3-4" WHERE TRAINING
MAXIMIZES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MS...AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CREATE A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD RISK. THE AREA CONSIDERED AT
HIGHEST RISK FOR TRAINING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS DEPICTED
ON THE ABOVE MAP.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36088923 35598895 35218850 34878787 34498755 
            33888757 32998755 32338821 32118880 32098959 
            32279005 32339016 32499042 33009075 33779103 
            34259067 34639017 34969011 35339007 35559007 
            35948983