MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0105
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AL & CENTRAL GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010712Z - 011132Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS AN
AREA THAT HAS RECEIVED LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5" COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN INVADING JET STREAK FROM A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO HAS LED TO GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL AL.  CLOUDS TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER THE PAST
HOUR PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW 35-40 KTS IS
INTERCEPTING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5-1.8" RANGE, LEADING TO THE ELEVATED CONVECTION.  MUCAPES
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE 500-1000 J/KG.  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL
AND WESTERN GA HAVE RECEIVED 3"+ OF RAINFALL PER RADAR ESTIMATES,
WHICH ARE LIKELY SATURATING AREA SOILS.

THE CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
OVERNIGHT, BUT A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NMMB AND 00Z SPCWRF APPEARS
TO HAVE THE PATTERN MOST CORRECT AT THE MOMENT AND FOR THE NEAR
FUTURE.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3", WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO
1.5", ARE POSSIBLE WHERE SPELLS OF TRAINING OCCUR.  ANY NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BANDS ARE LIKELY TO BOW OUT AND POSSIBLY LEAD
TO TRAINING ALONG THEIR SOUTHWEST FLANK WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT OF
RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY.  WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR EARLIER RAINFALL,
FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE WITHIN WHAT HAS OTHERWISE
BECOME A LONGER DURATION RAIN EVENT.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33818534 33598322 32718218 32338304 32188546 
            32218775 32388844 33618792