MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0106
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
948 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN
GA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011347Z - 011747Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CONVECTION TAKES PLACE. EXPECT HOURLY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1 TO
1.50 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL AL DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHEASTERN LA...A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPANS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BASED
ON THE RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS...MOST OF THE REGION
IS WEAKLY CAPPED TO UNCAPPED WHICH HAS FOSTERED ABUNDANT
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. IN PARTICULAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MS/AL WHICH GENERALLY RESIDES
SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION POINT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND OLD
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RAPID
SPIKE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY PER THE EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING DENSITY
PRODUCT SHOWS THE STRENGTH OF THESE UPDRAFTS QUITE WELL. THE KMOB
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS HOURLY RATES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1.50
INCHES WITHIN SOME OF THE HEFTIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

OVERALL...FURTHER EXPANSION OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MX TOWARD THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET SUPPORT
COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST INFLOW WILL FAVOR A BROAD AXIS OF
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. TRAINING MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH BELIEVE MUCH OF THIS COMPLEX SHOULD
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE BASED ON FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS.

UNFORTUNATELY MOST CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH RESOLVING THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THE HOURLY UPDATE CAMS LIKE THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AT LEAST PAINT A REASONABLE CONCEPTUAL PICTURE
TO FOLLOW. THE FOCUS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE MODELS
SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH...EXPECT THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO BE A BIT MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE WHERE
CONVECTION TRAINS OR REPEATS.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32178414 31648302 30858301 30428417 30078551 
            29438661 29398747 29708816 29958890 30268922 
            30728900 31228807 31738708 32098596