MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0107
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN AL/SOUTHERN GA/FL PANHANDLE... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011755Z - 012155Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ONGOING...PARTICULARLY ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WITH SUCH
AMOUNTS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN GA DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AL AND
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LA. ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED...ONE IN PARTICULAR STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN GA INTO SOUTHERN AL HAS SET A FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCAL MESOSNET DATA ACROSS THIS REGION INDICATED
HOURLY AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL REMAINS QUITE BUOYANT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING NOTED ON
THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES-R LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT. FURTHER...THE
17Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTED 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE-BASED CAPE WITH NO APPRECIABLE INHIBITION. WHILE TRAINING
IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SOME
OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED MORE COLD POOL DOMINANCE.
THIS WAS SOMEWHAT HINTED AT BY THE DRY AIR NOTED IN SOME OF THE
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE CELLS TRAIN OR REPEAT.
WHILE FFG VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...MANY OF THESE
MAY HAVE COME DOWN GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
REGARDING RECENT CAMS...MANY ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHIFT THE FOCUS TOWARD THE FL
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE AS THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS NOSES SOUTHWARD.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32338381 31588279 30358300 29778434 28888566 
            28488707 29268820 30598738 31848585