MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0109
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...W MISSOURI...SE KANSAS...NE OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110041Z - 110641Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE/HEIGHT FALLS...ALLOWING FOR REPEATING CONVECTION AND TRAINING
INTO CONFLUENT FLOW LEADING TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. 

DISCUSSION...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN E KS ALONG STRENGTHENING
SURFACE COLD FRONT PROVIDING STRONG SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITIES WITH ML CAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS SE KS/W MO TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN W MO.  CURRENT
IR/VIS AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOW WEDGE OF CONVECTION WITH TRAINING
PROFILE FROM MORGAN TO HENRY COUNTIES IN MO...GIVEN POTENTIAL OF
RATES OVER 1.25"/HR AND ORIENTATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT TO CELL
MOTION...TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 3HR FFG VALUES
1.7-2.2" RANGE IN THE SHORT TERM...

BY 03-06Z INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS W/CENT OK INTO A NARROW
CHANNEL MOISTURE FLUX S/SE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND SUPPORT SWWARD DEVELOPMENT IN SE KS. 
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER N/C OK WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND NEWARD AS WELL.  AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS IN THE LLJ INCREASING TPWS OVER
1.25" WITH PERSISTENT CAPES IN THE 1000-1250 J/KG RANGE...WHILE
ALOFT EXITING 70-80 KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTH ACROSS IA/N IL
ALONG WITH STRONGER 100-110 KT JET ACROSS TX SHOULD SUPPORT DUAL
JET FORCING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AND MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE MAIN
WAVE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS N OK/S MO LEADING TO UPSTREAM
MERGER OF COMPLEXES ACROSS NE OK/SE KS/SW MO.  THE CHANNELED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
FROM REINFORCED NORTHERLY FLOW...MST CONVERGENCE AND FLUX WILL
INCREASE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY TO 1.5-2.0"/HR.  HOWEVER...COOL POOL
FORMATION AS WELL AS PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF
TRAINING AND OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS AND PROGRESS THE LINE S AND
SE SLOWLY STILL POSSIBLE TO EXCEED FFG VALUES IN SPOTS FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES AROUND 30-50 PERCENT AND GIVEN CURRENT EVOLUTION
APPEARS MOST IN LINE WITH 12Z NSSL-WRF HI-RES MODEL AND EVOLUTION
TOTALS IN IN THE 3-4" RANGE OVER THE NEXT 6HRS IN THE OUTLINED
AREA.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38739247 38239139 37489321 36699529 36509662 
            36829707 37179696 37599578 37989500 38529376