MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0110
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1001 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND ARKLAMISS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 111400Z - 112000Z
 
SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR A
WEAK WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN TX AND AR. 
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5", COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE 13Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN TX AND SOUTHWESTERN LA AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TRENDS IN MUCAPE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY UPWARD IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS PER RECENT RAP AND RTMA INITIALIZATION COMPARISONS.
 BROAD 30-40 KT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850 HPA (PER VAD WIND
PROFILES) EXISTS WITHIN AN INCREASING AREA OF 1.4-1.6"
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PER GPS INFORMATION).  RADAR
REFLECTIVITY, THE 13Z SPC MESOANALYSIS, AND RECENT WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT INDICATE
THAT CIN IS ERODING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR, THE 00Z SPCWRF, SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTED 00Z WRF4NSSL, AND SOUTHWARD ADJUSTED 12Z NAM CONEST
APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE BEST.  BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BETWEEN THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT AS A SHORTWAVE IN NM AND ITS WEAK
BAROCLINIC LEAF FEATURE IN NORTHWEST TX PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WINDS ARE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, IMPLYING
THAT CELL TRAINING COULD BE AN ISSUE.  CELL MERGERS ARE A CONCERN
AS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHEAST-MOVING WARM FRONT MAY MERGE
WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE AR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LA/AR
BORDER -- RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ALSO HINT AS THIS POSSIBILITY IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX AND AR.  WITH MLCAPES
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND 850 HPA INFLOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT FROM HERE ON OUT, FEEL RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  FORWARD PROPAGATION TO THE EAST AT 40-45 KTS
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE, COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34909009 33658977 32369073 32039279 32019443 
            32179615 32769748 33279787 33939621 34269449 
            34559249