MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0113
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
748 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...N LOUISIANA...W MISSISSIPPI...EXT S ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 110000Z - 120600Z
 
SUMMARY...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY/ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINTAINING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CHANNEL OF ENHANCED
MST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN TX FEEDING DEVELOPING AND MATURE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER N LA ATTM PROVIDING EXCELLENT MOISTURE
FLUX/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT OF 1.75" TPWS AND CAPES IN THE
2000-2500 RANGE.  DEEP WESTERLY STEERING FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
TRAINING OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH RATES OF 1.5-2"/HR.
THOUGH OVERSHOOTING TOPS/RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE
CORES ARE A BIT MORE FRACTURED THE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS LEADING TO ADDITIONAL 3-5" TOTALS PER HIGHER PERFORMING
HI-RES CAMS SUCH AS THE RECENT HRRR RUNS.

AS THE MAIN SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SUPERCELLS RIDE THE
FRONTAL ZONE INTO N LA FURTHER COMPOUNDING ONGOING FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS. CONCURRENTLY AS A SQUALL LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MS/AL (SEE MPD 112)...CONVECTIVE ENHANCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY/ISNTROPIC ASCENT FOCUS WILL SHIFT FROM AN E-W ORIENTATION
TO NW-SE AND CELLS WILL TRANSLATE SEWARD AS WELL INTO CENTRAL
LA/SW MS WHILE STILL BEING SUPPORTED BY SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
ISNETROPIC ASCENT MAINTAINING RAINFALL EFFICIENCY THROUGH FF
THREAT WILL BE A BIT MORE ISOLATED GIVEN HIGHER GUIDANCE AND
SHORTER TIME OF CELL TRAINING/PERSISTENCE TOWARD 06Z.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33589153 33549114 33129094 32329066 31839057 
            31308983 30918974 30839081 31029173 31359266 
            31479294 31659339 31899385 32429394 32879391 
            33189360 33439247