MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0115
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...WESTERN NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 152240Z - 160310Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENCOURAGE REDEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.  ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.  AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...WITH THE 21Z RAP SHOWING PWS
INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE AN INCH EAST OF THE FRONT.  THIS
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AFFORDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES...PLUS FAVORABLE UPPER JET FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING.  WHILE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE STEADILY TO THE
NORTH...TRAINING/BACKBUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  

RAINFALL RATES SHOULD START TO DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
AFTER SUNSET...BUT NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS ACCUMULATE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST
FEW RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...AS WELL AS AS
THE NSSL WRF AND CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL IS FOR WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...OVER THE NEXT 6-HRS.  

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41480178 41110122 39820100 38630101 37250152 
            37170249 38030296 38720321 39630276 40010257 
            41090230