MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0116
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1025 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E COLORADO...NW KANSAS...SW NEBRASKA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160225Z - 160700Z
 
SUMMARY...POSSIBLE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES AS
CONVECTION STARTS TO WANE.

DISCUSSION...MCV CAN BE SEEN LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
IN RADAR MOSAIC NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN NEB WITH
ASSOCIATED BOWING LINE SEGMENT ACROSS SW NEB.  DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SSELY 50-60KT LLJ WILL EFFECTIVELY USE THE
BOUNDARY FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR CONTINUED MDT TO HVY RAINFALL
PRODUCTION EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS QUICKLY ERODING TO BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG BY 05Z ACROSS MUCH OF W KS/NEB.  MODERATE MOISTURE
VALUES IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION FOR RATES IN THE 1-1.25" RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 SOUTHEASTERLY PROPAGATION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED
STRONGEST CORES FROM LINGERING TOO LONG IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION
EXCEPT ISOLATED HANGUPS OR INFLECTION POINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. 
CURRENTLY UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT/JET ORIENTATION IS FAVORABLE TO
MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGION WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  THIS BEST DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING
NORTH OUT OF W KS TOWARD 06-07Z AS THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROF ORIENTS MORE N-S AND PLACES RIGHT EXIT REGION DESCENT
OVER THE AREA. 

ADDITIONALLY...COMPLEX DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER WEST TOWARD E CO WHERE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLIER.  ALL IN ALL
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS NW KS INTO SW NEB.

NOTE NORTH OF AREA OF CONCERN: THOUGH BETTER CONVERGENCE/TRAINING
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG THE DEFORMATION ORIENTED NORTH OF
THE MCV WITH TOTALS UP TO 2-3"/6HR ARE POSSIBLE; RAIN SHOULD FALL
IN THE SANDHILLS WHERE GUIDANCE IS MUCH HIGHER AND CAN HANDLE THIS
THREAT. 


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41060147 40950037 40329990 39600005 38700096 
            38420148 38300251 38840301 39650248 40790184