MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0117
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1118 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEW MEXICO...N TEXAS PANHANDLE...OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...SW KANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160318Z - 160918Z
 
SUMMARY...BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS

DISCUSSION...GOES IR/RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES WELL ESTABLISHED SW-NE
LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF. ORTHOGONAL 25-30 KT SURFACE INFLOW
AND 40-45KT 850MB INFLOW AT THE APEX OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS (UP TO 1.1" TPW AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE) IS SUPPORTING VERY
HIGH MST CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WITH INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.  UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS WELL AS WESTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE DRY LINE EFFECTIVELY SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION SUPPORTING FURTHER TRAINING. 
SIMILARLY FURTHER SOUTH NEAR I-40...NEW CONVECTION IS ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP.  THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH TDS IN THE 50S AND
OVERALL TPW NEAR 1.0" THE FLUX IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
RATES OF 1.5-2.0"/HR...COMPOUNDED WITH SOME HAIL TO CLOG DRAINAGE
BASINS TO FURTHER COMPOUND FLOODING ISSUES.  HI-RES CAMS
PARTICULARLY THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND EXP HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS
SETUP WITH 6HR TOTALS IN THE 3-4" RANGE.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38080163 37809974 36919969 35740094 35010231 
            34980342 35490378 36740307 37300245