MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0118
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 161302Z - 161702Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...

DISCUSSION...A SMALL SCALE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS CONDUCIVE TO BACKBUILDING CONVECTION...AND
ARE CURRENTLY SEEING THIS REALIZED ACROSS SOUTEHRN KANSAS NEAR THE
DODGE CITY AREA...WHERE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" AN HOUR AND 2-4" IN
THREE HOURS IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING. 

CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FIRING ON THE EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRYING IN
THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW AND NEAR A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY THAT IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ALSO SOME KIND
OF MID LEVEL FEATURE CAN BE SEEN IN IR...WITH COLDER COLD TOPS ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE FROM KS INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND
THE RECENT CONVECTION NEAR DODGE CITY FORMING ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS FEATURE. RAP SUGGESTS THE MAIN STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE KS/CO BORDER ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THINK THIS CONVECTION
IS ACTUALLY BEING ORGANIZED ALONG AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. MEAN WINDS
ALIGNED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST
TRAINING OF CONVECTION.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS CONVECTION WELL...AS THEY
ARE GENERALLY LACKING THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS HELPING FOCUS
IT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON THE EVOLUTION INTO THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 40-50 KTS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO AT LEAST
MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO MID MORNING. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD....AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP LIMIT CONTINUED BACKBUILDING ON ITS BACKSIDE ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE. THUS THE TRAINING THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR/AROUND DODGE CITY...WITH THE THREAT SLOWLY
DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

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