MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0119
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
710 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO NWRN TEXAS INTO SWRN OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 162309Z - 170500Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE PAST 02Z FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN TEXAS INTO
SWRN OKLAHOMA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED TO
TRAIN...CAUSING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE BEGINNING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD
FROM THE CNTRL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION OF SWRN
TEXAS. 850 MB WINDS VIA VAD WIND PLOTS ACROSS W-CNTRL TEXAS HAVE
BEEN 25-35 KTS FROM THE SSE...HELPING TO INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FROM BWD TO
CDS. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN OKLAHOMA INTO
CNTRL TEXAS...BUT A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS HAS ALLOWED MLCAPES TO
REACH TO ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1000-3000 J/KG VIA THE 22Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS PREVALENT OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO...WHICH WILL REMAIN THE CASE OVERNIGHT.

BETWEEN 01-03Z...850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING
WITH NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...HELPING TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS W-CTNRL TO SWRN TEXAS. AS
850 MB WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...ORIENTING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MPD THREAT AREA.
STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD THE NNE AT 25-35 KTS ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH REGENERATION OF CELLS TO THE
SSW...ALLOWING FOR 3 HRLY RAIN RATES TO GET INTO THE 3-4 INCH
RANGE BY 04Z. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO...WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
EXTENDING BEYOND 05Z. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36309919 35579818 33819855 32119980 30590146 
            30490259 30880288 31940205 33560115 35470002