MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0138
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
522 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E KANSAS...N CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EXT SE NEBRASKA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 262122Z - 270122Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF CELL MERGERS AND INCREASING RATES TO POSE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...DEEP MST CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OUTFLOW REINFORCED
NW-SE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE KANSAS FROM CNK TO EMP TO JUST N OF SGF
IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP AN EXPANDING COMPLEX WITH
NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND IR TEMPS IN THE MID -60S TO -70C. 
THESE CELLS ARE SUPPORTED BY 20-25 KTS OF NEARLY PERPENDICUAL LOW
LEVEL FLOW WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT RATES TO
1.75"/HR. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY THOUGH...IF CELLS CAN BECOME MORE
ROOTED AND TURN RIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY CELL IN E GERRY COUNTY
ATTM...ADDITIONAL INCREASE OF RATES DUE TO MERGERS AND SLOWER CELL
MOTIONS COULD INCREASE FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

INDIVIDUAL CELLS JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FROM SLN TO
JUST E OF AVK ARE ORIENTED FAVORABLY GIVEN DEEPER CLOUD BARING
FLOW GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE LINE...CELLS ARE MOVING JUST RIGHT
OF IDEAL SETUP BUT SOME ISOLATED TRAINING IS POSSIBLE.

THE LARGER THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS RELATED TO THE
MERGING OF THE COMPLEXES AT OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE AND
OUTFLOW BNDY INTERFACE...INCREASING RATES OVER 2"/HR GIVEN FLUX AS
WELL.   RAP FORECAST IS ALSO PERSISENT IN CLOUD BEARING FLOW FROM
THE SW TO NE FOR CELLS TO TRAIN FROM SSW-NNE EVEN AS ELEVATED BUT
STILL EFFICIENT CORES ACROSS N AND NE KANSAS POTENTIALLY AS FAR
NORTH AS AREAS AFFECTED BY 2-4" EARLIER THIS MORNING WHERE FFG
VALUES ARE BELOW 1.5" IN 3HRS AS SUGGESTED BY SOME RELIABLE HI-RES
CAMS SUCH AS THE NSSL-WRF AND WRF-ARW IN 3HRS...CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT LOWER IN THIS MANIFESTING THAT FAR NORTH GIVEN THE ANY INFLOW
WOULD BE WORKED OVER IN THE LOW LEVELS AND INFLOW IN THE ELEVATED
LAYER WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE RESTRICTED BY CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH.   

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40189614 40079543 39589503 39029483 38209469 
            38019543 37689595 36609716 36209806 36439848 
            38149732 38629711 39059709 39409707 39729731 
            40079695