MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0139
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...S INDIANA...N KENTUCKY...S OHIO...SW WEST
VIRGINIA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 262318Z - 270518Z
 
SUMMARY...STRENGTHENING CONVECTION ALIGNING FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING
INCLUDING REPEATING FROM NORTHERN EDGE OF SQUALL LINE/MCV. 

DISCUSSION...VIS/IR LOOPS SHOW LINES OF COOLING IR TOPS THAT ARE
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE CELL MOTION/MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OHIO VALLEY.  THIS INCLUDES NEWER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON OLD
OUTFLOW BNDY ACROSS CENTRAL IND AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN ROTOR OF THE
SQUALL LINE...WHERE CONVECTION IS WRAPPED TOWARD THE MCV ENOUGH
FOR ADDITIONAL CELL TRAINING.  IR TOPS TO -65C WITH AMPLE
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS INCREASED MST FLUX FOR TPWS TO
APPROACH 1.5" ALONG THIS DEVELOPING INTERFACE.  

ALOFT ENHANCING 70+ KT JET STREAK WILL BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO PROVIDING THE DISCUSSION AREA ADDITIONAL RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION AS INSTABILITIES START
TO WANE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION.  THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE MESO LOW/MCV CROSSING INTO S IN
ATTM...AND PROVIDE SURFACE BASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  RATES OF 1.5"/HR ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH ONLY IN
SMALLER/NARROWER UPDRAFTS LIMITING THE OVERALL HIGHEST COVERAGE. 
STILL WITH SOME COLD POOL GENERATION THE LINES WILL HAVE SOME
CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION TO LIMIT OVERALL TRAINING TO 2-3"
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 4-6HRS...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT HRRR
(PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE MCV) AND WRF-ARW.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39438666 39378604 39298443 39198370 39058262 
            38888167 38718071 38248031 37728102 37698238 
            37828317 37948370 38098517 38288597 38358640 
            38608717 38988743 39278730