MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0140
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENT OKLAHOMA...N CENTRAL TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 270040Z - 270640Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT CONVECTION TO PRODUCE QUICK BUT
HEAVY BURST OF RAINFALL OVER SATURATED AREAS

DISCUSSION...VIS/SWIR LOOP SHOWS N-S STREAMERS WITHIN INCREASED CU
FIELD EAST OF 99W...WHERE SFC TDS IN THE UPPER 60S AND TPWS
STARTING TO EXCEED 1.5" WITHIN THE GPS NETWORK.  WV LOOPS SHOWS
STRONG SHORTWAVE EXITING NE NM INTO THE PANHANDLES AND LEADING
EDGE OF SWLY JET ALOFT INDICATIVE OF THE NEGATIVE TILTING OF THE
TROF AS A WHOLE SUPPORTING RAPID HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS IS SUPPORTING
INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW AS NIGHT APPROACHES WITH VWP NETWORK
ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH 40-45KT 850MB AND 7H FLOW (VERY NEAR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION PER 00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS) UP TO 70 KTS
PER KGCK.  THIS LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE MST FLUX AND
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY ACROSS THE EASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE. 
THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY EFFECTIVE ON SOUTHERN END STORMS ON THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHERE DECREASED FLOW ALOFT
HAS BENT BACK THE LINE INCREASING THE DEEP MST CONVERGENCE...ALSO
GIVEN SLOWER CELL MOTIONS INCREASING HVY RAINFALL DURATION.

RAIN RATES OF 2-3"/HR ARE LIKELY BUT GIVEN EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
THE OVERALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN A SIMILAR RANGE AS THE
BURST WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION... THIS COULD POSE SHORT TERM
FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY AS RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 10 DAYS IS
300-600% OF NORMAL BUT ALSO GENERALLY ISOLATED TO MOST PRONE AREAS
INCLUDING URBAN CENTERS. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36139581 35099511 34159538 32019637 31589810 
            31649994 32269942 32619913 33489894 34179896 
            35139875 35869814 36079757