MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0141
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
936 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E KANSAS...NW MISSOURI...EXT SE NEBRASKA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 270135Z - 270705Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH
TRAINING CELLS

DISCUSSION...01Z MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES 996 SURFACE LOW JUST NW
OF SLN KS WITH COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO N
CENTRAL OK ATTM.  FLEETING GOES-14 SRSO VIS LOOP INDICATES
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE LINE EAST OF THE FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM KICT TOWARD STJ/NW KANSAS CITY...WITH IR TOPS EXCEEDING -70C.
 THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
DEEPENING IS EJECTING ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME
CONTINUING TO PROVIDE AMPLE DPVA FOR BROAD SCALE ASCENT OVER THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING EXCELLENT MST FLUX WITH TPWS
INCREASING TO 1.5-1.7" SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH IN THE SHORT-TERM ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A WELL ESTABLISHED MCV ENTERING S CENTRAL KS
SW OF ICT...BUT ALSO INCREASE FORWARD (EASTWARD) PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTIVE LINE INTO E KS/W MO...WHILE CONCURRENTLY EXPANDING
MODERATE SHIELD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE KS INTO NW MO GIVEN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. 

RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL AND INDICATE THIS MCV
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KC BY 05-06Z...ALONG THE SAME
BOUNDARY WITH AN AREA OF 2-4" POSSIBLY HIGHER FROM EMP TO MCI.  
 


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40719666 40579549 40489490 40249447 39909410 
            39329376 38559393 37489484 37029559 37009715 
            37179791 37689768 37839764 38969640 39629597 
            39919607 39939646 39829707 39969752 40329769 
            40609746