MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0142
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NW MISSORI...SW IOWA...NE KANSAS...EXT E NEBRASKA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 271950Z - 272345Z
 
SUMMARY...MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS DRIVING ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG COLD FRONT. 

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP INDICATES A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND HAS FORCED ASCENT VIA DPVA AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL TO MID-LEVEL MST CONVEGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE.  THIS INTERSECTS A NARROW RIBBON OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG...AND THOUGH THIS IS DRIVEN MAINLY BY
STEEPER LAPSE RATES LIKELY TO DRIVE HAIL PRODUCTION (SEE MCD 475
FROM SPC) BUT THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF TPWS IN THE .8-.9" RANGE
WHICH ALONG WITH HAIL TO HELP CLOG DRAINAGE CULVERTS HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 1.0"-1.25"/HR GIVEN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE/MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH FFG VALUES IN THE .75-1.0" RANGE PARTICULARLY
OVER NW MO.  ADDITIONALLY...CELL MOTION VECTORS WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW TOWARD THE NORTH EAST AND GIVEN THE CURVATURE OF THE LINE
ACROSS NE KANSAS THERE IS THE POSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED
TRAINING OF CELLS AS WELL.

MOST HI-RES CAMS SUPPORT THIS GENERAL DEVELOPMENT PROVIDING
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SETUP WITH TOTALS IN THE 1-2" RANGE
OVERALL THOUGH MOST HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SLOWER WITH THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL NOT PRESENTING MUCH RAINFALL OVER NE KS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41929615 41799482 41119386 40319372 39639404 
            38969458 38799523 38919580 39299574 40049564 
            40699593 41639680 41809669