MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0145
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
501 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OK...WESTERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290900Z - 291400Z
 
SUMMARY...THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD.

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OK AND
WESTERN AR AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD BY STRONG WINDS IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS.   

BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PW VALUES SURGING NORTHWARD
OVER ERN TX IN THE PERIOD FROM 0430Z TO 0830Z...WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING FROM AROUND 3/4 OF IN INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVED IN
NORTHEAST TX...AND THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OVER AN
INCREASING AREA COUPLED WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS.  

MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
POINTING TO THIS AREA AS HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES PER
HOUR.  

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE AREA WAS GENERALLY STARTING OFF CLOSE
TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR.  THESE VALUES SHOULD BE LOWERING WITH TIME
AS RAINFALL THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SATURATE THE SOILS.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36279537 35859334 33679229 33269400 33539591 
            34129653 35379690