MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0146
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
714 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 291110Z - 291510Z
 
SUMMARY...EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEND TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN 0857Z AQUA-MODIS RGB AIRMASS PASS SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED PV ANOMALY EJECTING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM THIS MORNING WHICH IS PROVIDING STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES FOR AN EXPANDING SW/NE
ORIENTED AXIS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS BEING
FACILITATED FURTHER BY A ROBUST LARGER SCALE WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES. A NOSE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IS POOLED ACROSS
WEST TX AND IS ADVECTING NORTH OVER A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT.

CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
THIS COUPLED WITH THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM DEPICTING SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS SUGGESTS THERE IS MORE VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. THE EXPERIMENTAL GLD-LIGHTNING DENSITY
PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING A GRADUAL UPTICK IN STRIKE ACTIVITY WHICH
FURTHER CONFIRMS THE IDEA OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

THE STRONGER FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES AND
ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING
OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ARRIVES THIS MORNING. THE 00Z
ARW/00Z NMMB AND 00Z NSSL-WRF SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WHICH MAY BE
UNDERDONE SINCE THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR PERIODIC
TRAINING GIVEN THE SW/NE ORIENTATION AND PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTION...AND RAINFALL RATES THAT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5
INCHES/HR AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.

SOME OF THESE RAINS WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT SAW SOME HEAVIER
RAINS OVERNIGHT...AND THUS SOME FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS MORNING GIVEN LOCALLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE HEAVY
SHORT-TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36969996 36020010 35190089 34600187 34440254 
            34720297 35400267 36030212 36940104