MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0148
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR...SOUTHWEST TN...NORTHERN MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 291730Z - 292130Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME REPEATING BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF/FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-14 SRSO IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG
MCS THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING AR THROUGH MIDDAY IS STARTING TO LOSE
SOME OF ITS ORGANIZATION OVERALL...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN SOME
EMBEDDED BANDS OF STRONGER CELLS WHERE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES/HR ARE OCCURRING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS OVER THE LAST HOUR.

SOME ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL OCCURRING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AR WHICH IS THEN PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...AND THIS REPEATING BEHAVIOR OF OCCASIONALLY
INTENSE RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO FOSTER AT LEAST SOME
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z NSSL-WRF AND 12Z
WRF-ARW FAVOR AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS. GIVEN PWATS OF NEAR
1.5 INCHES AND A ROBUST AND INSTABILITY-LADEN LOW LEVEL JET
UPSTREAM OVERRUNNING A STATIONARY FRONT...IT IS EXPECT THAT
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE HEAVY AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
THESE AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE HIRES GUIDANCE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35758926 35668834 35098804 34438842 33869006 
            33879169 34579217 35179160 35509068 35669001