MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0159
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KY...SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST VA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011048Z - 011330Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME TRAINING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT
IN SOME ENHANCED RUNOFF PROBLEMS OR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY COLD-TOPPED
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING FAR SOUTHEAST KY
AND MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES OF CLOSE TO 1 INCH/HR AND THE REPEATING NATURE OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO CAUSE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS OR FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY THE
FACT THAT FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW...AND THE HEAVIER RAINS
WILL BE FALLING OVER SOME ELEVATED TERRAIN.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE MORNING AS THE BROADER
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE ACTIVITY TO APPROACH 2 INCHES
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37738085 37358037 36878132 36618223 36528353 
            36598397 36768416 36918406 37258319 37648173