MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0160
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN SC...SOUTHERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011144Z - 011500Z
 
SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WILL PROMOTE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO
EXPAND A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC...ALONG
WITH SOME COOLING OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM
HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME OCCASIONAL OVERSHOOTING TOPS WHICH COUPLED
WITH A NOSE OF 1.5 TO 1.6 INCH PWATS IS LIKELY RESULTING SOME
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR.

THE ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
FRONTAL ZONE. SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IS ALSO  WEAK INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SC NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NC.

THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME PERIODIC TRAINING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS ADDITIONAL CELLS FOCUS NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
AND ADVANCE NORTHEAST. THE HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SINCE SOME OF THESE RAINS
WILL BE FALLING ON AREAS THAT SAW SOME HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY...THERE IS SOME ELEVATION TO THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35878026 35717928 35097907 34327988 33828115 
            34028204 34628225 35598115