MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0162
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN GA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011800Z - 020000Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFING CELL-TRAINING AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN VICINITY OF A FRONTAL ZONE
ATTEMPTING TO LIFT NORTH OVER CENTRAL SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GOES-CI PRODUCT SHOWS AN EXPANDING CU/TCU FIELD GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING LEVELS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER CENTRAL SC NEAR
THIS FRONT.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DUE TO SOLAR
INSOLATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE LARGER SCALE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWN INTO EASTERN GA.

THE PWATS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AND WITH COOLING
CONVECTIVE TOPS...THE CELLS SHOULD BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY TOP 2 INCHES/HR. GIVEN THE FAIRLY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS...AND THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION IN TANDEM WITH THE MEAN FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS SOME
CELL-TRAINING...THERE MAY BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS THAT COULD REACH
3 TO 5 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

FFG VALUES ARE HIGH...BUT THE REPEATING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST A LOW-END
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34687977 34237906 33787920 33197982 32688063 
            32418132 32498201 32948203 33668134 34438062