MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0165
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN & EASTERN KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 012035Z - 020135Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KY WITHIN
AN AREA WHERE SOILS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED.  FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONGEALING ACROSS
NORTHERN KY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN IA AND SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW, IN THE 1.1-1.2" RANGE PER GPS VALUES.  INFLOW AT
850 HPA RECENTLY INCREASED TO 20 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES.  EVEN
SO, CELL MERGERS AND AND VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TRAINING HAVE
RESULTED IN 1-1.5" AN HOUR RAIN RATES PER RADAR IMAGERY.

THE CAM GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY VERY WELL, EITHER
PLACING IT TOO FAR NORTH ALONG THE OH RIVER, FARTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS WV, OR FARTHER DOWN IN NORTHEAST TN.  CELL MOTIONS SHOULD
BE ROUGHLY EASTWARD, BUT THE THEORY IS THAT A COLD POOL WILL FORM
UNDER THIS CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION AND FORCE SOME SOUTH OF EAST
PROPAGATION, REINFORCING A WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT SHOWING UP ACROSS
KY IN THE 20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5" ALONG WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE CONSIDERED THE BEST BET THROUGH 01Z. 
CONSIDERING SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38758391 38658274 37408176 36928312 36908457 
            37288575 38158693 38388607 38558508