MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0166
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL BORDER OF SC/NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 012231Z - 020431Z
 
SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS WANDERING TOWARDS CHARLOTTE
NC.  CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEY'VE RECEIVED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS INCREASING (20+ KTS AT 850 HPA)
INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD AIR WEDGE/CAD EVENT.  A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING NORTHEAST
IN THIS REGION AT THE TIP OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM WESTERN NC. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ~1.5" PER GPS VALUES.

WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW RAMPING UP, THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE GROWING
IN SIZE/INTENSITY AND POTENTIALLY MERGE NEAR A PLACE THAT RECEIVED
8"+ OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  SOME BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE
CONSIDERING THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW, WITH THE CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY TIED TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE COLD SECTOR, WHICH
APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EASTWARD.  SOILS ARE SATURATED IN THIS
REGION.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLUSTER,
WHICH COULD BE HIGHER SHOULD A CELL MERGER OCCUR IN THIS REGION. 
THE 18Z NAM CONEST HAS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR THIS AREA, THOUGH
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE ALSO HAD A CLUE, SHOWING 3-5" LOCALLY. 
FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE IN AN AREA OF SATURATED
SOILS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35318062 35078005 34468009 34288050 34328085 
            34548194 35038173