MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0172
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030316Z - 030600Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER WESTERN NC APPEAR TO BE SLOWING THEIR FORWARD MOTION IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE.  THIS MAY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF TRAINING CELLS WHICH RESULTS IN FLASH FLOODING. 

DISCUSSION...THE 02Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MAP SHOWED A FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. 
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE THE NSSL WRF...NAM CONEST AND HRRR ALL SUGGESTED THAT
MUCAPES WOULD BE GROWING TO MORE THAN 2000 J PER KG WHILE WHILE
CIN ERODES THROUGH 05Z. 

WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE AS OF
03Z...STORMS OVER WESTERN NC APPEARED TO BE SLOWING THEIR
PROGRESSION IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A WAVE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH HAS INCREASED THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. 

THINK THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 0530Z GIVEN THE
SLOWER STORM MOISTURE AND THE LONGER PERIOD OF MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT.  STORMS MAY STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2 INCHES.  
RAFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF AFTER 06Z ONCE STATIC
STABILITY BEGINS TO DECREASE.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36368019 36198004 35918007 35488104 35318194 
            35598227 35878177 36168111 36248062