MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0173
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
546 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NC...NORTHEAST SC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030945Z - 031300Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
STARTED BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY.  GIVEN THE MEAN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
HAD SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J PER KG IN A REGION
WHERE CIN WAS ERODING ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
PAGE.  THE ARW...RAP AND HRRR HAD BEEN INDICATING THE INCREASING
CAPE AND ERODING CIN ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE APPROACH OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAD FINALLY PROVIDED ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
INITIATE THE CONVECTION.

RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WAS OBSERVED...AND THE HRRR
AND WRF/ARW INDICATED THAT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL PER HOUR RATES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE ENTIRE AREA SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST.  

FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NC AND
NORTHEAST SC GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND CELL MOTION ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE ENTIRE LINE SHOULD START
TO BE PROGRESSIVE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EVENTUALLY REACHES THE COAST.


BANN

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35867718 35237685 33807761 33177898 33457979 
            33777992 34627871 35607769