MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0174
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
728 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN NC... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 031130Z - 031400Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION CROSSING EASTERN NC PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 2 INCH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF TRAINING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION
MOVING/FORMING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SC...AND ALONG AND
EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG CONTINUE
TO FUEL THE LINE OF CONVECTION. TO THIS POINT...THE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PROGRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...BUT KLTX AND KMHX
RADARS HAVE SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES WITH THE
ACTIVITY. GROUND TRUTH HAS BEEN CLOSER TO 1.50 INCHES AN
HOUR...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE NC COAST BEFORE 14Z...BASED ON
CURRENT MOVEMENT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ELEMENTS
OF TRAINING ACROSS EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z WRF ARW)
SUGGEST HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES....WHICH LOOKS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIRMASS. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

HAYES 

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36557614 36407585 35507543 35147545 34607616 
            34567666 34797694 35927723 36327697