MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0176
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
507 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN FL PENINSULA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 040906Z - 041321Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO ERUPT EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MX. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN
ALIGNING IN THE GENERAL WEST-EAST DIRECTION WHICH IS COINCIDENT
WITH THE MEAN CLOUD-BEARING FLOW. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY NOSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD FT. MYERS.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH...A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE BLENDED-TPW DATA SHOWED 1.50
TO 1.75 INCH PWATS PEELING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MX DIRECTED
TOWARD THE WESTERN PENINSULA OF FL. THIS MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
THIS BUOYANT AIR SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WITH MORE INHIBITION INLAND PER THE 08Z RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. WHILE FFG VALUES ARE EXCEEDINGLY HIGH ACROSS THE MPD
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST-TO-EAST TRAINING COULD POSE A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY OVER ANY URBANIZED
CORRIDOR. WHILE NO GROUND TRUTH EXISTS YET...DUAL-POL DATA FROM
KTBW SUPPORTED 2 TO 3 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT LEAST ON A MORE LOCALIZED BASIS. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY NOSE SOUTHWARD IN TIME PER RECENT CAM
TRENDS. BASED ON THE PAST FEW CYCLES OF THE HRRR AND ITS
EXPERIMENTAL RUN...THEY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS CONVECTION
BEING A FEW HOURS BEHIND.  


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28858211 28128173 27488156 27008159 26768196 
            26828251 27638289 28808284