MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0181
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070230Z - 070830Z
 
SUMMARY...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DROP HOURLY
RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5".  WITH THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 2-3", FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN RUGGED TERRAIN.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM NORTHERN CO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WY, ELEVATED OVER A STATIONARY FRONT
SNAKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WY DURING THE PAST HOUR.  INFLOW AT 700
HPA IS CYCLONIC AT 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE REGION, IMPORTING MUCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE BOUNDARY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
~0.8" INHABIT THE AREA, ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT TO 1.5" AT SEA LEVEL.

THE GUIDANCE, IN THIS CASE THE RAP, SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC INFLOW
AT 700 HPA SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME,
WHICH WOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE HEAVIER RAINS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
WY WITH TIME.  WHILE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD TEND TO
MOVE ALONG THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS PATTERN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, EASTERLY 700 HPA INFLOW COULD KEEP ACTIVITY SLOW
MOVING, WHICH IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN THE FORWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE VECTORS.  THE MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GENERALLY BELOW 8500
FOOT ELEVATION.  WITHIN AN AREA OF RUGGED TERRAIN, FLASH FLOODING
IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE UNTIL THE INSTABILITY ERODES TOWARDS DAWN.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...NWRFC...

LAT...LON   44050597 43230401 42370337 41170343 40650407 
            40550515 41210740 41620891 41851058 43161047 
            44030868