MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0183
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 PM EDT SAT MAY 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 071815Z - 072315Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN TROWAL PRESENTS
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WITHIN HIGH TERRAIN

DISCUSSION...GOES-14 SRSO INDICATES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING
ON A WEDGE APPEARANCE IN THE DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT OF A LOW LEVEL
TROWAL FROM PARK/TELLER COUNTIES NNW INTO ROUTT/JACKSON COUNTIES. 
THE CONFLUENCE OF FAIRLY STRONG COOL CONVEYOR BELT ASCENDING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE ALONG WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR IN THE TROWAL IS
PROVIDING MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX WITH ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOWING A
GRADIENT OF MOISTURE WITH VALUES OF .5-.7" OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER.  ADDITIONALLY THE RAP INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE 500 J/KG
ALONG THE TROWAL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH VALUES NEARING 1000
J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT/FRONT RANGE NEAR
KCOS...ALLOWING FOR UPSTREAM ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED UPSTREAM
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND THEREFORE A TRAINING ENVIRONMENT. 
 EXPECTATION OF RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF .5" TO 1.0"/HR WITH
TRAINING MAY PRESENT UP TO 2-3" OF RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GEM-REGIONAL/ARW PARTICULARLY  ACROSS N CENTRAL
COLORADO.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND POSE THREAT A BIT FURTHER
EAST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF N CO AS WELL POTENTIALLY FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX GIVEN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TDS
IN NE CO/SW NEB.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41040804 41000624 40980439 39700451 38590468 
            38910567 39980711 40240742 40690823