MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0187
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
701 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENT NEBRASKA...N CENT KANSAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 082301Z - 090401Z
SUMMARY...ONGOING CLUSTERS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER MCS COMPLEX
WITH TIME. ISOLATED REPEATS/MERGING CELLS COULD PRODUCED SCATTERED
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS.
DISCUSSION...WV LOOP INDICATES SHORTWAVE OVER NW KS AT THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF DIFFLUENT JET. THIS IS SUPPORTING DEEPENING
SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SURFACE
INFLECTIONS...COMPLEX 22Z ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING WAVE
SOUTH OF BBW INTERSECTING WITH WARM FRONT TO THE EAST AND
FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING BACK TO DEEPER SURFACE LOW NEAR OAKLEY. A
BULGING DRYLINE EXTENDS SSE THROUGH DDC INTO OK. MOISTURE AXIS
REMAINS WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS IT EXTENDS FROM E OK NORTH
TOWARD CENTRAL NEB. RAP 850MB MST TRANSPORT VECTORS DO SUPPORT
SOME INCREASING ADVECTION FROM THE SE BUT TPW VALUES ARE LIMITED
TOWARD 1.0"...THOUGH SFC TDS ARE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH GOOD SELY
FLUX. THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT MISSING INGREDIENT...HOWEVER OTHER
DYNAMIC PARAMETERS COULD COMBAT THIS LIMITATION. PERSISTENT
DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AND DPVA ALOFT ALONG WITH DIVERGENT
500-1000MB THICKNESS FIELDS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG UVVS WITH
SLOWING CELL MOTIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MERGERS/TRAINING GIVEN
CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN NW KS WILL LIFT GENERALLY PARALLEL TO
THE N-S FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEB.
HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE WAS VERY SCATTERED IN POSITION OF RELATIVE QPF
MAXIMA OVER CENTRAL NEB...BUT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION ONGOING THIS
SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTRAL PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NSSL-WRF, ARW AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUPPORT
RATES UP TO 1.5" WITH TOTALS OF 2-3" IN 3-6HRS WHICH IS VERY CLOSE
TO FFG VALUES IN THE VICINITY. AS SUCH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.
GALLINA
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...
LAT...LON 41699945 41639858 41219830 40749835 39779851
38789928 38579998 38990047 39440087 40300035
41070051 41490034
Last Updated: 701 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016