MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0188
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
926 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE IDAHO...SW WYOMING...EXT N UTAH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090130Z - 090600Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF RATES UP TO
.75"/HR MAY POSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. 

DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS SW ID AND MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...TAPPING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THAT
RANGES UP TO 1500 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MODERATE
MOISTURE UP TO .75".  DUE TO ADVECTION OF FLOW THROUGH THE VALLEY
UP THE TERRAIN OF SE ID...SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAS LEAKED
THROUGH THE N-S VALLEYS INTO N UT/SW WY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL
AS CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COOL CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL WY.  ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
50-60KT UL JET STREAK EXITING CENTRAL WY ALONG UT/CO BOARDER. 

HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT WITH PRODUCING IN
THE RANGE 1-2" TYPICALLY CENTERED OVER THE WYOMING RANGE OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 3HR FFG VALUES TO RUN IN THE 70-80%
RANGE...SIGNIFYING AT LEAST THE ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
 THIS WOULD BE PARTICULARLY THE CASE WITH ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN DPVA AND REMAINING LOCKED ON HIGHER
TERRAIN WHILE BEING FED BY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH A BIT HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...PIH...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...NWRFC...

LAT...LON   44241121 44061078 43741070 43571043 43651012 
            43540995 43190990 42680992 42120997 41150986 
            40731055 41111122 41791149 42931170 43681182 
            44191142