MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0189
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1107 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS, SOUTHEAST NE, & KANSAS CITY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090306Z - 090906Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE TRYING TO BACKBUILD
ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5", AND LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-3" EXPECTED, FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO IS PROVIDING AMPLE
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WHEN COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.3", MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG,
AND 850 HPA INFLOW OF 35-50 KTS, CONVECTION HAS SHOWN ATTEMPTS AT
ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, SHOWING THE OCCASIONAL
WEDGE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN CENTRAL KS.  CELL MOTION
HAS BEEN EAST-NORTHEAST AT ~40 KTS.

RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN KS OVERNIGHT AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.  THE
CYCLONE'S MOVEMENT WILL CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW TO SLOWLY VEER
AND FOSTER FORWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE REGION.  IN KS,
BACKBUILDING IS THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT FARTHER
NORTHEAST, CELL TRAINING AND POSSIBLE MERGERS COULD YIELD HEAVY
RAINFALL.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5", AND LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2-3" INDICATED BY THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA COULD BE CHALLENGED.  THE CURRENT AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA COULD
BE MORE LIMITED/ISOLATED THAN USUAL.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41019612 40799499 40169431 39379476 39099599 
            38889736 38409977 39419939 40339854 40819739