MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0190
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AR...SOUTHEAST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091850Z - 092300Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME COULD RESULT IN TRAINING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION....THE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED NORTH
TX/SOUTHEAST OK THIS MORNING IS CROSSING NORTHWEST AR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MO. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION
FORMING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA OVER NORTHEAST AR. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES NEAR 0.50 INCHES ARE ACCOMPANYING THE AREA OF
RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. 

THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK...WHERE CLEARING
HAS ALLOWED DESTABILIZATION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE AREA
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST RAP SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG BUILDING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
MO. 

THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME LYING ACROSS
THE REGION (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING NEAR 1.50
INCHES). INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST OK SHOULD ALLOW THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET (INCREASING TOWARD 50 KNOTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO TOWARD 00Z. 

THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW THE
NEWLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO TRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO
SOUTHEAST MO. THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/RAP ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (WITH LOCAL 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS). THE TIME LAGGED HRRR FROM 16Z SHOWED THE BEST
CHANCE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES OCCURRING
NORTHWEST OF KPOF TOWARD 00Z. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38469157 38369065 37278998 35529159 34649340 
            35149446 36589405 37639320