MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0191
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
958 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX & PORTIONS OF AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100158Z - 100758Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE SHOWING BOTH TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING ASPECTS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING FROM NORTHEAST
TX ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LENGTHENING BAND OF COOL
CLOUD TOPS STRETCHING FROM A MESOSCALE WAVE NEAR THE ARKLATEX
NORTHEAST INTO THE COOL SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN MO.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.4-1.6" INHABIT THE REGION, PER GPS VALUES. 
MUCAPES IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THIS AREA ARE 1000-2000 J/KG,
WHICH WOULD TAKE HOURS TO ERODE.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS SLIGHTLY
CONVERGENT AND 35-45 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES.

LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH IT WILL VEER SOMEWHAT ACROSS AR, WITH THE
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO MAINTAIN (IF NOT BUILD) THE INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER APPEARS TO BE
HELPING OUT THE DIVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION, WHICH
ITSELF HAS BEEN SLOW-MOVING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE
WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH TOO FAR NORTH BASED UPON MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND CURRENT INSTABILITY PER SPC MESOANALYSES. 
THE 12Z SPC WRF AND 18Z NAM CONEST SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON
WHAT IS ONGOING.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5" ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS MOISTURE FIELD, WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37769018 37348923 35499005 34649088 33909252 
            33459423 33559613 35489399 37139189