MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0193
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN TO CENTRAL KY/NORTHWESTERN TN/EXTREME
SOUTHERN IN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 101934Z - 102334Z
 
SUMMARY...THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN NATURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MO/NORTHEASTERN AR AND TOWARD THE TN/KY BORDER. THESE
CONVECTIVE TOWERS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLANK OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN KY.
SUCH DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALIGNING WITH THE 850-300
MB WIND VECTOR WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING/BACKBUILDING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RECENT EXPERIMENTAL GOES-R SUPER RAPID-SCAN IMAGERY
INDICATED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A BAND OF TOWERING CU ACROSS
THE AR/MO/TN/KY BORDER REGION. SOME OF THESE HAVE BEGUN SHOWING UP
ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH LOW-END RETURNS. WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS MORE IN THE DEVELOPMENT PHASE...A MATURE BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO MARCH EASTWARD ALONG THE IN/KY BORDER WITH HOURLY
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FALLING IN THE STRONGER CORES.
FFG VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL KY VS THE WESTERN SECTOR
OF THE STATE. THE LATTER REGION APPEARS TO BE IN A PRIME LOCATION
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEING ON THE NOSE OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY WITH
1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
AR/SOUTHEASTERN MO PER THE 18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SOME OF THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD HANG UP AND TRAIN AT SOME POINT AS THE
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS ALIGN WITH THE MEAN-STEERING FLOW. 

12Z AND HOURLY-UPDATE CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN RESPONSE TO THE LONG-LIVED MCV. THE 12Z
ARW/NMM-B BOTH SUPPORT THE MORE ROBUST HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER
NORTH WHICH HAS GENERALLY BEEN MORE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART.
SOLUTIONS WHICH DO IDENTIFY THE CURRENT FEATURE MOVING ALONG THE
OH RIVER ARE MUCH TOO SLOW. IN SPITE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE TIME-LAGGED
ENSEMBLE HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE FAVORED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KY AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE  STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38338575 37778539 37368586 37038682 36868710 
            36398781 36148879 36608956 37288854 37698769 
            38118667